Trading de apuestas deportivas

[mastergrado]

Una consulta, el trading lo haces antes de comenzar el evento, o durante el mismo? Saludos.

[Gabriel Y]

Iniciado por charlyforex

Buenas, hoy no ha ido muy bien la cosa, una apuesta nula y dos pérdidas pequeñas... Con el partido del Valencia fue error mío, porque pensaba que era de Champions o de la Europa League y sólo después me di cuenta que era un amistoso.

Charly yo también he estudiado el mercado de betfair con apuestas en vivo y he visto varias tendencias.

Básicamente lo que está ocurriendo tiende a un precio de 1.01 al finalizar el partido y los otros 2 resultados suben.

Se puede hacer un back 1.10 y un lay a 1.07 logras una ganancia del 2,8%

100 x 1.10 = 102.80 x 1.07

Te regalo una técnica que uso para aprovechar esto, selecciono partidos con cuotas 1 ó 2 inferiores a 1.8, que haya un favorito definido.

Chequeo los medios tiempos, si se van al descanso 0-0 la cuota del favorito puede subir de 1.5 a 1.8, de 1.8 a 2.2

Ahí se genera un value betting, porque el favorito sigue siendo favorito.

Si el favorito mete un gol, la cuota baja a 1.25 o menos, ahí cierro el lay con una ganancia del orden del 15% a 20%

100 x 1.8 = 120 x 1.50

Capital involucrado 100 (solo la apuesta back, porque al igualar tu apuesta betfair reintegra de inmediato la apuesta back)

Ganancia neta 20

El riesgo es que el partido termine 0-0 y la cuota del favorito suba demasiado.

Aplico un stop loss al 30%

100 x B = 70 x L

1,42 x B = L

1.42 x 1.8 = 2.55
1.42 x 2.0 = 2.84

Estos trades se resuelven en menos de 30 minutos, ya sea a favor o en contra.

La cuota promedio pre partido para el empate de los eventos esta entre 4 y 6, un 20% de probabilidad de empate

1 de cada 5 partidos da una perdida del 30%, 4 partidos dan una ganancia promedio del 20%, 4 x 20 = 80

80 - 30 = 50

También está la posibilidad que el favorito reciba un gol... también tengo una técnica para eso, pero esa me la reservo, es la que me permite trades de hasta el 60%.

Saludos.

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[angaper]

No entiendo. De veras les funcionará este tipo de spam e incrementarán mucho sus ventas, y los "ingenuos" usuarios de este foro acudiremos masivamente a visitar sus enlaces, o simplemente es una forma improductiva más de invertir el tiempo?